President Obama is leading all of the Republican presidential candidates in head-to-head match-ups, according to a poll released Wednesday by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
Pew’s national survey taken March 7-11 shows Pres. Obama is leading Romney by 12 percentage points (54%-42%) and Santorum by 28 points (57%-29%) among voters.
Among the information pulled from from Pew’s survey:
Obama’s approval rating rises to 50 percent
For the first time since Osama bin Laden was killed last summer, half of all Americans (50 percent) say they approve of Pres. Obama’s job performance, while just 41 percent disapprove.
Most think Pres. Obama will win a second term
By a 59-32 margin, most Americans think Pres. Obama will win the election if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee. That margin is far wider if Rick Santorum is the GOP nominee: 68 percent think Obama would win, while just 24 percent predict a Santorum presidency.
A majority of Americans have an unfavorable view of the Republican candidates
Confirming fears among Republicans that the protracted primary is weakening all the candidates, the survey found that the contentious Republican primary has taken a toll on the image of the leading GOP candidates. In the current survey, just 29 percent of Americans say they have a favorable view of Romney, while 51 percent say they have an unfavorable impression.
Republicans are struggling with women and minorities
Pres. Obama’s lead over Romney is attributable in large part to his wide advantage among women, younger voters, and nonwhites. Women favor Pres. Obama over Romney by 20 points—virtually unchanged from a month ago.
Overall, 47 percent approve of the law, while 45 percent disapprove.
Romney’s national lead widening among Republican primary voters
Mitt Romney has regained the lead in the support for his party’s presidential nomination, as conservative backing for Rick Santorum has declined. Romney currently holds a 33-24 lead over Santorum among registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, with 20 percent backing Newt Gingrich and 14 percent favoring Ron Paul. The poll was taken before Santorum’s double victories in Alabama and Mississippi Tuesday night.
Roseanne Barr’s presidential bid has penetrated the veil of media silence so deeply that North Carolina based national polling firm Public Policy Polling has included her in a head to head to head comparison with Mitt Romney and Barack Obama.
Obama wins with 47%, while Romney draws 42% and Barr stands at 6%, with [...] Green Party Watch
A new Democracy Corps poll revealed a nightmare scenario for Republicans where not only does Obama get reelected but Democrats regain total control of Congress.
According to Democracy Corps, for the first time in two years the Democratic Party has taken the lead on the generic congressional ballot, 47%-44%.
The bad news for the GOP is that Independents have shifted back to the Democratic Party. In the previous surveys congressional Republicans led congressional Democrats by a net 9 points in October and 19 points in August with Independents, but today Democrats have taken a two point lead.
Why have the Democrats surged? The answer is that the behavior of Republicans in Congress has turned off voters. By a margin of 53%-39% respondents said the more they watched the Republicans in Congress, the less they like what they are offering. Approval of Republicans in Congress has dropped to a new low of 28%, and 8% strongly approve of the Republican caucus.
If congressional Republicans are hurting the GOP brand, the party’s 2012 presidential candidates may be making things even worse. By a margin of 53%-38% respondents said the more they watch the GOP nomination, the less they like what the Republican Party has to offer. Frontrunner Mitt Romney is not personally popular with Republicans or Independents. Only 31% of Republicans and 27% of Independents had warm feelings for Romney. Republicans are cold on Romney, and they are ready to bolt to a third party candidate.
18%-25% of Republicans and Republican leaners surveyed said that they would vote for a conservative third party candidate, and if that candidate was Ron Paul, Romney’s general election support would collapse.
Obama leads Romney by one point (47%-46%) in a two person race, but if Paul gets in, Romney loses 12 points and falls to 34%. Obama only loses three points if Paul runs as an Independent, and overall Paul draws the support of 18% of the electorate. (A third party candidacy by Ron Paul would split the Republican vote, and hand the election to Obama).
A big problem for Republicans was that President Obama remained the most personally popular politician in the poll. Obama now only trails Romney by three points with Independents, and the Democratic Party 5 points and moved into a tie with Republicans on the issue of the economy. The poll also found that Obama has more potential voters willing to support him than Romney does.
All three of these components, an unpopular Republican congress, a cold fish of a nominee, and surging incumbent president could add up to a perfect storm of defeat for the GOP. The most telling statistic is that the more people get to know the Republican Party, the less likely they are to support their candidates.
The problem with generic ballots is that unnamed candidates tend to be more popular than real people, but generic ballots can help gauge the current temperature of an electorate. Right now, the electorate is moving back to the Democratic Party.
The Republican Party could have offset the damage done by their congressional members with a warm, energizing, and inspiring nominee. Unfortunately for them, Mitt Romney is none of those things. Romney tends to leave voters cold, and helps to reinforce the negative impressions that many respondents have about the GOP.
The ultimate representation of Republican voter dissatisfaction is their willingness to vote for a third party conservative candidate. The GOP has become an unpopular party that is seriously in danger of fracturing. Add into this equation an incumbent president who is personally popular and gaining positive momentum in the polls, and the result is the potential for a disastrous defeat.
It is possible, even without the presence of an Independent conservative third party candidate that Democrats take back the House, keep the Senate, and win the White House.
The pieces are starting to fall into place for what looked like an impossible scenario after the 2010 election to become a reality in 2012.
Arizona voters, polled after last week’s election, said they voted to recall Arizona Senate President Russell Pearce because of his divisiveness and because they want Arizona’s legislature to focus more on the economy and job creation and less on immigration.
“Our research clearly shows that Arizona voters want their politicians to work together to focus on practical solutions for improving the state’s economy,” said Jill Hanauer, President of Project New West, which conducted the poll. “Russell Pearce’s decision to focus on extremist immigration policies played a role in his defeat, and could do so for more Arizona Republicans if they continue to ignore the priorities of voters.”
Among voters who did not support Pearce, 38 percent cited either his divisiveness, fanaticism, rigid ideology, or issue platforms. Another 21 percent specifically named Pearce’s position on immigration, his piloting of SB1070, his destruction of Latino relations or his outright dislike of Hispanics.
White voters basically split evenly between Pearce and winner Jerry Lewis, but Lewis won the Hispanic vote by a large margin. Pearce won the Mormon vote, but Mormons were seen as a key constituency of Lewis, who is also a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. While Lewis lost that key demographic, that he did as well as he did was a huge factor in the election.
“LDS voters in SD-18 sent a clear message that character matters to them,” said Hanauer. “These results are consistent with past surveys we’ve conducted that show values are extremely important to the the LDS community, and Mormons are willing to vote against an established member of their community if they view them as morally flawed.”
DeeDee Garcia-Blase, who was recently president of Somos Republicans, was one of the lead organizers of the recall. She recently announced that he had left the Republican Party to become an independent and to found the National Tequila Party, a non-partisan group dedicated to increasing Latino voting in the United States, among other things.
I left the Republican Party because I felt betrayed with their continued inaction on legal immigration reform and was tired of the attacks from the far right in which Conservative websites falsely accused me of being for open borders. I have also been called a “RINO” or “Republican in Name Only” due to my strong pro immigrant views. For the record: I do think it is important to document and know who is coming in and out of our country. I’m a veteran and know and understand the importance of our national security.
“Republicans won’t touch immigration,” she told the Colorado Independent. “My hands were tied in the Republican Party. I was being attacked right and left in the Republican Party.”
As a non-partisan organization, she said the Tequila Party, of which she is co-chair, is open to people of all political persuasions. She said the group has about 3000 members so far, with more Democrats than Republicans.
Looking at the presidential race, she said she didn’t think Mitt Romney would be able to garner significant Hispanic support, but that Perry might be able to, if he can reignite his faltering campaign.
Following is a communication from the RJ Harris 2012 campaign:
November 2, 2011
With your help and support we are the definite front runner for the 2012 Libertarian Presidential Nomination. We continue to ask for your support in getting the word out. Recently, we won the Illinois Libertarian Convention Straw Poll. We have also been winning over massive support across the country along with Libertarian State Leadership.
Just in case the image with the recent poll up above did not get to you here are the results:
2012 LIbertarian Presidential Poll (October 31, 2011)
Carl Person 2%
Roger Gary 7%
RJ Harris 32%
Lee Wrights 14%
Bill Still 2%
Polling Consisted of 240 Likely Delegates +-4% Error
The release does not say who conducted the poll, but the graphic on Harris’ website indicates that a firm called Polipolls conducted the survey. I am unfamiliar with this polling firm, but this Facebook page indicates that Polipolls has been used by at least one other Libertarian campaign in the past.
I e-mailed the Harris campaign with some followup questions concerning the methodology of the poll. I’ll post any response I receive as an update on this story.
[Update 1] Polipolls appears to be the polling arm of The Political Group, a campaign consulting firm that also designed Harris’ website.
It was, indeed, a stunning victory. When the votes were counted Saturday, September 24th, Herman Cain was declared the winner of the Florida Republican Party’s Presidency Five straw poll. He won by a substantial margin, 37.1% of the 2,657 delegate votes cast, more than the combined amounts for the governor of Texas, Rick Perry (15.4%) and the former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney (14.0%). Herman Cain’s unequivocal conservative message resonated well with the Florida Presidency Five delegates. He outlined clearly his detailed record of more than 40 years of job creation in the private sector and, as he stated, his “common sense solutions to restore fiscal sanity to government”. To see an article about Mr. Cain’s win, click here.
Frances Rice is a lawyer, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and chairman of the National Black Republican Association. She may be contacted on the Internet at: www.NBRA.info
AMES — Tensions reached their apex Thursday night during the Fox News/Washington Examiner GOP presidential debate, sending Republican enthusiasm through the roof with less than 48 hours until the Ames Straw Poll gates open Saturday.
Debate topics were typical: conflict in the Middle East, American’s floundering economy, immigration, states’ rights, and of course, hot button social issues. Not to be missed were references to dog food and Mickey Mouse.
Atypical? How candidates came out swinging — at each other, at President Barack Obama and even at the debate moderators.
Twice, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn), a Straw Poll favorite and tea party darling, and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty traded heated words about the other’s political records and policies.
Poised and never appearing flustered, Bachmann deflected attack after attack fired by Pawlenty, including her compromise on raising Minnesota’s state tax on cigarettes in 2005. Pawlenty was then Governor, Bachmann, a state lawmaker.
Bachmann explained she initially opposed the tax, but later compromised upon learning of a provision in the same legislation that gave strong support to the anti-abortion community and platform.
“You can get money wrong, but you can’t get life wrong,” she said in the debate.
Pawlenty, who has been slow to gain momentum in the Hawkeye State, came back swinging, claiming the Congresswoman’s D.C. record was void of anything substantial.
“As to her record: she’s done wonderful things in her life, absolutely wonderful things, but it’s an undisputed fact that her record in Congress in nonexistent,” Pawlenty said. “She’s got a record of misstating and making false statements.”
“You’re killing us,” Pawlenty told Bachmann, drawing audible reaction from the audience.
The Congresswoman remained on point, countering the Governor by comparing his own record to Obama’s, stating: “You said the era of small business is over. That sounds a lot like Barack Obama if you ask me.”
Within the first hour of the debate, Bachmann and Pawlenty’s volleys almost overshadowed the other six candidates. Forty-five minutes passed in the debate with only a couple minutes from former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, a Catholic Conservative from Pennsylvania. Finally, in the second hour, a frustrated Santorum called Fox News moderator Bret Baier out for not giving him the same face time as Bachmann and Pawlenty, raising his hand and declaring, “I haven’t gotten to say a lot.”
Santorum and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) sparred over American intervention in Iran, with the long-time Congressman blaming the U.S. for hostilities in Iran.
“Anyone who says Iran is not a threat is not seeing clearly,” Santorum said.
The former Senator also had his chance to stand out late in the debate, when he gave an impassioned argument on why the debt ceiling had to be raised — a stance the other candidates, particularly Bachmann, have taken vehemently against. Santorum maintained while it had to be raised, it should have been done so with a balanced budget in place.
Prominent Atlanta businessman Herman Cain seemed to spend a significant amount of his face time clarifying past comments and telling America that it “needs to learn to take a joke.” However, Cain also touted his private sector experience in repairing the economy.
“It is imperative we get this economy going in the in next 90 days,” after the next president is inaugurated, he said. One of the foundations to that is making tax rates permanent and setting a maximum tax rate for corporations.
But when asked about the bipartisan legislation that raised the debt ceiling, Romney bluntly said, “I’m not going to eat Barack Obama’s dog food. What he served up is not what I would have done as President of the United States.”
Fellow candidate Newt Gingrich, who served as U.S. House Speaker in the 1990′s, was even more blunt, calling the super-committee borne from the debt ceiling drama “dumb,” and characterized debate moderator Chris Wallace’s questions as “playing Mickey Mouse games.”
Obama was the target of several political missals from the candidates, who admonished the President’s economic and fiscal policies, as well as his military strategies overseas.
Huntsman stood out from the other seven participants on stage: the practicing Mormon believes “in traditional marriage first, but also civil unions. Our country can do better when it comes to equality,” and added the issue of marriage should go to the states. Most of the other candidates who spoke on the issue, with the exception of Paul, support a federal amendment defining marriage between one-man-one-woman exclusively.
Huntsman also has not publicly presented an economic development plan. However, he stated Thursday he would repeat the policies implemented in his native Utah.
“I’m going to do exactly what I did as Governor. It’s called leadership,” he said. “We cut taxes historically and created the most business-friendly environment in the country.”
And to those who are still flirting with a 2012 bid? Bring it on, candidates said.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry — expected to join the fray this weekend — and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin have not officially declared candidacy, but should they choose to, their would-be opponents are ready to welcome them to the field.
Up until now, signs of any rank-and-file liberal Democratic “base” revolt against Obama have been few and far between. Perhaps that’s why a poll from CNN last week publicized as showing that liberals were the main source of his latest drop in approval ratings got more attention than a random survey normally captures.
After weeks of prolonged negotiations with Republicans around the federal debt and in the wake of the strong push back from Congressional Democrats against a ‘grand bargain’ to cut Soc. Sec. between the President and the House GOP leadership, a new CNN poll shows that support from the political left flank is starting to leave Obama.
But the troubling news for the President was within that approval number, where there is a growing number among his base who are disappointed: his rating among self-described liberals in the poll was only 71%, along with 80% self-IDed Democrats in the approval column.
“…drill down into that number and you’ll see signs of a stirring discontent on the left,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Thirty-eight percent say they disapprove because President Obama has been too liberal, but 13 percent say they disapprove of Obama because he has not been liberal enough – nearly double what it was in May, when the question was last asked, and the first time that number has hit double digits in Obama’s presidency.”
It should also be noted that complaints of the President not being liberal enough were not just relegated to liberals themselves. 14% of self-described moderates who disapproved of Obama cited the same reason, and even 9% of conservatives.
The poll utilized phone interviews with 1,009 adults conducted from July 18th to the 20th. Read the full results here.
–Wisconsin Republicans bypass Democrats to cut collective bargaining, and talk of recalls is starting to spread. –Fox News simply switches union-related poll results, then issues incorrect correction 44 minutes later. –On the Bonus Show Idaho rancher revealed as former Boston mobster, substitute teacher shows up drunk, Space Shuttle Discovery’s last mission, more. The David Pakman [...] Best News & Politics